According to the RBI, there are both good and bad signs regarding the global slowdown, with inflation relatively close to the target and growth remaining resilient, but signs of a slowdown in some high-frequency data. The bank believes that the lagged effects of the rate rise are just beginning, and they may continue to play out over the next few months. Inflation is expected to come down over the year, and RBI's enterprise surveys show that firms expect input costs and selling prices to moderate, with an expected fall in the cereal prices in the coming months. Additionally, above capacity utilization and governments increased capital expenditure is expected to bolster the infrastructure and manufacturing activities. 

Two inflationary risks have come to the fore since the February meeting, according to Professor Jayanth R. Varma.

The first is an output cut by OPEC+, which could signal a structural change in the geopolitical alignment of the major oil-producing countries, and the second is a deficient monsoon, which could create inflationary pressures that need to be counteracted with monetary policy measures.

With a watchful approach, Dr. Rajiv Ranjan has urged policymakers to tread cautiously as inflationary expectations are gradually easing, domestic growth momentum is robust, and India is insulated from the global banking crisis. The key factors that could adversely affect the inflation trajectory over 2023-24 are climate-related, structural demand-supply imbalances in important food items such as milk and volatile crude oil prices. At present, there is considerable uncertainty on how these events will play out over the year, and hence, a wait-and-watch approach may be a better strategy.

Dr. Michael Debabrata Patra believes that inflation ruling above 6% is harmful to growth, and the baseline projection for real GDP growth at 6.5% for 2023-24 will benefit from an upside from budgeted capital expenditure, and this advantage should not be frittered away by inflation. By current reckoning, the future path of inflation is vulnerable to several supply shocks.

Finally, Shri Shaktikanta Das, in his statement, has expressed concerns over the emergence of banking sector turmoil on both sides of the Atlantic and urged policymakers to continue their efforts to strengthen financial sector resilience. He has also stressed the need to sustain and further strengthen financial sector reforms to enhance the efficiency and resilience of the financial system.

Overall, the approach has been watchful and conservative, rather than adventurous, just like the previous committee meeting. RBI seems to factor in current affairs from the expected deficient monsoon, to being vary of any escalation of the Ukraine crisis. Considering the above factors, the unpredictable nature of the foreseeable economic order is enough to encourage the RBI to take a wait and watch position. Next meet is scheduled during 6-8 June,2023. It is to be seen after a month, whether the MPC, under the aegis of Shri Das, continues the watchful approach